How Ayes Works

A prediction market lets you trade on the probability of real-world events. Here's everything you need to know.

What is a prediction market?

A prediction market is a platform where people trade on the likelihood of future events. Each market poses a yes/no question about something that will happen in the real world — for example, "Will the UK base rate be cut before June?" or "Will this bill pass Parliament?"

You can buy YES shares if you think the answer will be yes, or NO shares if you think it won't happen. If you're right when the market resolves, your shares are worth more than you paid. The price of YES shares reflects the crowd's collective best guess at the probability — if YES shares are trading at 65%, the market is saying there's roughly a 65% chance the event happens.

Prediction markets have a strong track record of forecasting accuracy, often outperforming individual experts and polls. Because traders have skin in the game, they are incentivised to be honest about what they actually believe.

The Token Economy

Ayes uses tokens — an in-app currency with no monetary value. Tokens let you participate in markets, climb the leaderboard, and test your forecasting skills.

SourceTokens
Signup bonus1,000
Referral bonus (per referral)200
Daily faucet (testing)1,000
Minimum trade size10

Tokens have no monetary value. Ayes is currently in testing. All balances may be reset.

How Trading Works

Ayes uses an automated market maker (AMM) — a mathematical formula that sets prices automatically based on how much has been traded. There is no order book and no need for a counterparty.

  1. 1Each market has a YES pool and a NO pool of tokens. At launch both pools start equal.
  2. 2When you buy YES, your tokens enter the YES pool and you receive shares calculated by the formula.
  3. 3Your share count is: shares = tokens × NO pool ÷ (YES pool + tokens)
  4. 4The more YES is bought, the higher the probability moves — and the fewer shares you receive per token, because each purchase makes YES more expensive.
  5. 5If YES resolves, your payout is: shares × (total pool ÷ YES pool)

Worked Example

YES Pool

1,000t

NO Pool

1,000t

Probability

50%

→

You buy 100 tokens on YES

→

You receive: 100 × 1,000 ÷ (1,000 + 100) = 90.9 shares

→

New probability: 1,100 ÷ 2,100 = 52.4%

✓

If YES resolves: 90.9 × (2,100 ÷ 1,100) = 173.5 tokens — a profit of 73.5t

How Markets Resolve

Markets are resolved by the Ayes team based on publicly verifiable sources. The resolution criteria are clearly stated in each market's description before you trade.

Each market lists its resolution source — for example, "Official ONS data", "BBC News", or "Parliament.uk". We only resolve markets when the outcome can be objectively confirmed from that source.

Markets resolve within 48 hours of the closing date once the outcome is confirmed. If a resolution is disputed, you can flag it by contacting andrew@ayes.io.

Market Categories

🏛️

Politics

Elections, legislation, party leadership, and government decisions.

📈

Economy

Interest rates, inflation, GDP, housing, and Bank of England policy.

🌍

Climate

Weather records, emissions targets, net zero milestones, and energy policy.

🔬

Science

Research breakthroughs, clinical trials, space missions, and technology.

Frequently Asked Questions

What happens if a market doesn't resolve?
If a market cannot be resolved — for example, if the event is postponed indefinitely — it will be voided. All tokens spent on the market will be refunded in full.
Can I lose more than I put in?
No. The maximum you can lose on any trade is the number of tokens you spent on that trade. You cannot go into negative balance.
What is EV (expected value)?
Expected value (EV) is a way of measuring whether a bet is good on average. If you think YES has a 70% chance of winning but the market prices it at 50%, you have positive EV — over many similar bets, you would expect to profit. Trading markets with positive EV is the core skill of forecasting.
Are tokens real money?
No. Tokens have no monetary value whatsoever. Ayes is a testing platform. You cannot buy tokens with real money, and you cannot withdraw tokens as cash.
How is the probability calculated?
The probability is derived from the pool sizes using the AMM formula. If the YES pool has 1,100 tokens and the NO pool has 1,000 tokens, the total pool is 2,100 tokens and the YES probability is 1,100 ÷ 2,100 = 52.4%.
Can I trade the same market multiple times?
Yes. You can buy more YES or NO shares on any open market as many times as you like. Your positions in the same market and same direction are aggregated — your total shares, total tokens spent, and average entry price are all tracked together.

Ready to start?

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